Atomera (ATOM): 65% of shares held by Institutions and Insiders after Q1(2021) filings

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Every quarter I review all the current 13f filings and get an idea of who is buying. Since Q1(2020) the number of 13f filings is up 4x from 23 in Q1 to 97 in Q1(2021). Adding all the 13f filings there are now 12.34m shares accounted for and with insiders holding 2.53m shares approx. 65%(14.87m) of the 23m total outstanding shares can be accounted for as of 3/31. With $36.7m(2+ years) in cash and no need to sell shares the float shrinks every quarter. There are now 97 13f filers and each quarter a large percentage add to their positions. 8 filers added over 100k shares each in the quarter and Invesco initiated a 273k share position. 30 new funds bought shares.

  • 97(Q1) Institutions/13f filers now own shares up from 75(Q4). 30 NEW funds initiated positions.
  • Institutions increased 18% to 12.34(Q1) up from 10.50k(Q4)
  • 66 Institutions bought/added shares in Q1 and only 25 sold

Atomera is engaged in the business of developing, commercializing and licensing proprietary materials, processes and technologies for the $450+ billion semiconductor industry that is growing to $750b by 2027. By incorporating MST, transistors can be smaller, with increased speed, reliability and energy efficiency. In legacy nodes, by adopting MST, performance can be increased and die shrunk so capacity can increase over 30% and help solve the current industry shortage issues. Recent data demonstrated the applicability of MST to leading edge 3nm fabs meaning MST can be adopted across the entire $750b TAM. We believe that MST can be widely incorporated into the most common types of semiconductor products, including analog, logic, optical and memory integrated circuits.

  • Atomera shares outstanding 23.1m
  • Insiders 2.53m or 10.96%
  • Institutions holdings from 13f filings 12.34m or 54%. Below are only the +100k filers
    • Blackrock Inc. 1.258 million up 109k
    • Valley High Capital 1 million
    • Valley High Limited Capital 1 million
    • Vanguard 888k up 38k
    • Peter Appel 871k
    • Vulpes Innovative Technologies 743k
    • Hollencrest 642k up 87k
    • K2 Energy 520k
    • Susquehanna 519k up 218k
    • Citadel Advisors 364k up 123k
    • Geode Capital 315k up 43k
    • Morgan Stanley 308k up 284k
    • Statestreet Corp 284k up 39k
    • Invesco 273k NEW
    • Avenir Corp 240k
    • Baird 195k up 143k
    • Northern trust 189k up 1k
    • Bard Associates 186k down 7k
    • AWM Investment 183k down 395k
    • Sargent investment 162k up 9k
    • Flagship Harbor 148k down 75k
    • Jane Street Group 136k NEW
    • Sculptor Capital 124k up 61k
    • Brevan Howard Capital 108K NEW
    • https://whalewisdom.com/stock/atmr
  • 14.87m(65%) shares held by Institutions and Insiders
  • Float 8.4m shares before retail estimate
  • Estimate retail holdings 6-7m(guess)
  • Estimated Float less than 2m after retail estimate
  • Shares Short 3.13m(5/14
  • Cash $36.7m burn rate $3.5m/qrt approx as of 3/31
  • 269 patents granted and pending with 26 patents issued in 2020 and 3 so far 2021
  • 80 patents pending
10 additional customers ready for Phase 4

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM) Q1 CC: With the strong technology base and a growing set of solutions we can provide, Atomera is currently very well positioned to navigate the road to a bright future.

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  • Here are the highlights from the 6/10 Stifel Virtual conference that can be found on their website
  • HIGHLIGHTS
  • Working with more than 50% of worlds largest semiconductor companies
  • Phase 4 time frame is 3-4 months
    • JDA #1 started Phase 4 on 3/2/21
  • Patents granted and pending increased to 276 up by 8 in the last month
  • When reviewing potential royalties chart CEO mentioned Atomera is working with leading fabs first
  • Phase 3 can last 3 years and take 3 development turns through the fab. Most Phase 3 customers have been in Phase 3 for 3 years and some have already had more than 3 part development churns through their fab.
First JDAs and Licenses are with LEADING Fabs
  • Here are highlights from the 5/18 Needham conference that can be found on their website
  • HIGHLIGHTS
  • Many of the Phase 3 customers have enough data to make decision on moving to Phase 4.
  • No delays for any of current Phase 3 customers even with fabs at capacity. Projects are high priorities for customers. All moving towards production.
  • MST only solution for legacy nodes increasing capacity to meet demand.
  • Well financed. $37m cash, no debt, no warrants and only 23m shares outstanding. Financed for 3 years.
  • Once MST starts to be adopted expect it to be widely adopted by all fabs as that typically is how new technology spreads across industry. Needed to stay competitive.

Q1 Summary: The company signed its first JDA and completed the Phase 4 tech transfer in Q1. The JDA customer is progressing towards releasing the technology to its business units which may lead to Phase 5 qualification on multiple nodes. All other Phase 3 customers continue to move forward and have experienced no delays even with industry wide capacity issues since these projects are considered a priority. There are 10 customers in Phase 3 and half have multiple Phase 3 engagements.

Recent groundbreaking MST work has demonstrated applicability for solving current issues in the 3nm fabs. More data and white paper to follow. The company also is receiving many industry inquiries on how MST can be used in older fabs to boost capacity 25%. It may be the only solution to solving the chip shortages going forward as older fabs are already running at over capacity and no one is building older fabs and current parts will not be migrated to newer fabs. MST is applicable to the complete Total Addressable Market(TAM) which is predicted to hit $750b by 2027.

  • Atomera upcoming conference presentations
  • Oppenheimer Emerging Growth :: May 11-12 2021
  • Needham Tech & Media :: May 17-20 2021
  • Stifel Cross Sector Insight :: June 8-10 2021
  • CC Highlights
  • $36.7m in cash. 2+ years of runway. $14m/year burn rate.
  • JDA #1 signed and Phase 4 entered and Tech Transfer completed – $400k license fee paid.
  • JDA #1 when Phase 4 completes will release to business units for Phase 5(multiple nodes)
  • Current licenses (STMicro, AKM, large fabless) continue moving forward and pushing towards production. No delays.
  • Other Phase 3 customers(7 customers) continue moving forward and pushing towards production. No delays.
  • Recent MST work has proven applicability to 3nm fabs. Recent blog and future data coming soon!
  • MST is getting many inquires in how it can help industry shortages by shrinking die size. One example showed a 25% die shrink that increased capacity 34%.
  • MST Cad being widely adopted within industry and will greatly reduce time for future development programs
  • EPI tool is installed at Arizona State University and is in final certification. Currently processing wafers.

Status of current Phase 3 and Phase 4 programs. There have been no delays and all are moving forward. While the JDA customers cover multiple nodes and take longer to move to Phase 5 since they are testing out the technology for all their business units to adopt. There are 10 customers in Phase 3 that can move to Phase 4 at any time. Those with multiple engagements will probably be JDAs covering multiple nodes. The following are quotes from the CC.

That being said, all of our existing customers continue moving forward on their development work with us. During discussions of incremental our new customer projects, we have started to hear rumblings of restrictions on R&D wafers because of tight capacity. At the same time, we are seeing increased requests to understand how MST can grow production volume through die size optimization. The current industry problems are a mixed blessing for us.

Our licensees continue to move forward toward commercialization with MST and we have several other phase three customers who we hope will move in that direction soon. 

Beyond the JDA, all customer engagements continue moving forward. A focus on existing customers, ongoing travel restrictions and R&D wafer limitations will keep new customer growth from expanding significantly in the near term. However, we have been experiencing solid interest from both new and existing customers to learn how MST can be used in to expand their production volume and help solve both current and future capacity issues. It has been well reported in the news that many of the world’s manufacturers have experienced production stoppages for the lack of the semiconductor chips necessary to build their products.

Scott Bibaud — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. The most important thing for us with existing customers is to get programs that we’re working on now push to completion and get into production. Although it’s great to start new programs with existing customers because generally you can get started faster, there’s lower barriers, you don’t have to go through all the formal contracts and so forth. But given a choice we’ll try to push our existing programs to production as best as we can rather than starting new ones

10 Customers in Phase 3 who could move in Phase 4 at any time

Chip shortage will last years. The TAM will almost double in the next 5 years. The MST solution allows older fabs to boost capacity with minimal investment. MST may be the only viable solution other than spending hundreds of billions on older fabs. In the slide example a 25% die shrink increased capacity 34%. The following are quotes from the CC.

One way they could get significant relief would be to use MST. Let’s look at a few different ways MST can be used solve industry problems. According to IC Insights, in 2020, more than 40% of monthly wafer capacity was to process nodes at 40 nanometers or above where more than half of that 180 nanometer or above, a manufacturing technology first introduced in the 1990s. Another 11% is in 20 to 40 nanometers, which the industry also categorized as legacy nodes.

These are the areas where the most help was needed, and MST is one of the only technologies with an ability to provide significant improvements in performance and die size for products in those process nodes. On this slide we show how at 180 nanometers MST SP is able to outperform an industry-standard designed by more than 30%. If we take those same mechanisms and direct them to die size reduction, MST is able to shrink a similar die by approximately 15 to 20%. Our ongoing development work continues to find ways to use MST to improve these numbers and thus, the expected savings.

The step function and costs to build a new facility is too large to consider but by encouraging their engineers to make new designs using MST, they will get 15 to 20% more chips out of the same number of wafers produced without it. Our economic analysis shows this will have the effect of increasing both revenue and profits for the fabs and their customers, while also providing a healthy royalty to Atomera. Remarkably MST should work even better at nodes smaller than the ones we talked about before.

We then traded off the performance improvement for die size reduction using MST on a typical NAND2 gate like the one shown here, it resulted in a 22 to 25% area reduction. Analog scaling with MST provided a 21% reduction. So, overall, you can see how these results can really move the needle on capacity improvement. We have been in discussions with many potential customers about using MST to help solve their production problems.

25% size reduction increased production by 34%

First mentioned in a Robert Mears(CTO) blog in April recent development work and test results demonstrated that MST is highly effective in the next generation fabs. Check out the recent blog. The following are quotes from the CC.

Although the opportunity in legacy nodes is quite exciting for Atomera, MST technology is also very well positioned to solve problems for customers at the leading edge.

As manufacturers attempt to make transistors with the smallest geometries, it’s important that junctions are sharp and well-defined. As Robert Mears’ blog post pointed out last week, MST does a much better job of that than other methods the industry is currently trying. We have previously been worried that MST, while very thin, may still be too big for these applications, so we tried making it much thinner and it still worked beautifully. Over the next few weeks, we will have more information about this development on our website and you can be sure that our customers are going to be hearing about it as well.

Earth Day Blog

The EPI tool is housed at the Arizona State former Motorla fab which is also shared with Applied Materials. The fab is processing wafers and is finishing certification. Besides sharing the facility with Applied Materials this area is also the location for industry giants like TSMC, Intel and Samsung to just name a few. The following are quotes from the CC.

OK. So, our Epi tool is located at the Arizona State MacroTechnology Works center in Tempe, Arizona. It’s a world-class semiconductor facility used to be owned by Motorola, who I believe transferred it to Arizona state years ago. Beautiful state-of-the-art facility.

Now, why in Tempe, which is just outside of Phoenix? Phoenix is a little bit of a epitaxial center of excellence in the world. That’s where there are a lot of engineering — a lot of engineering town out there that does that. It’s also a site of a number of fabs. And when you run Epi you need to have the infrastructure that you need for a semiconductor fab including very large hydrogen tanks and other chemical suppliers that are nearby.

Our tool is set up. We are actually processing wafers in there and we’re qualifying our film. All that being said, we haven’t signed off a 100% on the full facility requirements yet. I know it’s been a long time, it seems like we’re always right around the corner.

Home of Atomera’s EPI Tool

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): University partnerships shine light on future Mears Silicon Technology(MST) applications

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Updated on 5/1/2021 Added information on location of Atomera’s EPI tool that is installed at the Arizona State Macrotechnology center which also is working with Applied Materials. Likely all three working together. Atomera recently blogged on work proving MST is applicable for leading edge 3nm fabs and this work was completed at the ASU Center.

The BETR center, formed in 2016, includes top universities UC Berkeley, MIT, Stanford and others. Industry members include Atomera, TSMC, TI, Applied Materials and Lam Research. One area being led by the Dean of UC Berkeley College of Engineering Tsu-Jae King Li is working directly with Atomera and TI and has to do with SegFET transistor technology for RF applications. This shouldn’t be any surprise since she has been working with Atomera for years and is named on Atomera 2017 granted patent 9722046 and 2018 granted patent 10084045. I would also not be surprised if Atomera board member and former TI Fellow, Duy-Loan Le, is also tied into this work(see info below). These types of research programs indicate that Atomera is very well known in academic circles and within the industry. Being tightly coupled with power house universities and leading technologists is another great indicator of the MST technology and what it offers to the industry.


Nanomechanics theme leader Tsu-Jae King Liu (Berkeley) collaborates with Texas Instruments and Atomera on projects about SegFET transistor technology for RF applications.

See link below for report

Details from report below

Established in 2016, the goal of the BETR Center is to create a hub for physical electronics research at UC Berkeley. The Center is led by E3 senior investigators Tsu-Jae King Liu (Dean of the College of Engineering UC Berkeley) and Jeffrey Bokor (Chair of EE and Assoc. Chair of EECS Department, UC Berkeley), and managed by Michael Bartl (E3 S Executive Director), and includes several additional E3 investigators as members.

BETR is an industry-funded research center with the goal to form interactions with companies for long-term research collaborations and knowledge transfer. Corporate sponsors gain early access to innovative ideas and research results, while university researchers gain insight into challenges faced by industry.

In addition, the main research legacy of the Center for E3, the Berkeley Emerging Technology and Research (BETR) Center has significantly increased its impact and research activities with two more companies (Texas Instruments and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) joining the previous four companies (Applied Materials, Atomera, Lam Research, and Futurewei).

In the last two periods, the Berkeley Emerging Technologies Research (BETR) Center has emerged as the prime research legacy establishment of E3. As described in section IV (Knowledge Transfer), BETR is a hub for physical electronics research at UC Berkeley with the goal to form interactions with companies for long-term research collaborations and knowledge transfer. BETR is entirely funded by company members (“industrial affiliates”). Current BETR industry members include Applied Materials, Atomera, Lam Research, Futurewei, TSMC, and Texas Instruments. In Period 10, three member companies had directed research projects with E3 senior investigators.


Nanomechanics theme leader Tsu-Jae King Liu (Berkeley) collaborates with Texas Instruments and Atomera on projects about SegFET transistor technology for RF applications.

Atomera board member Duy-Loan Le is also on the boards of $CREE, $NATI and $BLDP boards. She can pick and choose what companies she works with. Duy-Loan started at Texas Instruments (TI) at 19 and two decades later was elected to the highest title – Senior Fellow. During a 35-year career at TI, Duy-Loan led the development to grow TI’s Memory product line across 5 countries and 3 continents to generate multi-billion dollar revenue, oversaw the development of the world’s fastest Digital Signal Processor per 2004 Guinness World Records, and pioneered products enabling TI’s entry into base station & VOIP markets. Duy-Loan holds 24 patents and currently serves on the board of directors at National Instruments Inc., Cree Inc, Ballard Power Systems, Atomera and various start-up companies.

Atomera’s EPI tool is installed at the ASU Macrotechnology Center. ASU announced last October about future industry collaborations with Applied Materials. Recently Applied Materials announced work with materials similar to work Atomera has been doing for years. Applied Materials patent referenced Atomera’s foundational patents. Seems likely that Atomera and Applied Materials will be working with or is working with Arizona State University.

Home of Atomera’s EPI tool
Applied Materials Patent References Atomera’s Patents
ASU Cleanroom

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera’s(ATOM) MST technology solves the chip shortage and half the worlds largest semiconductor companies are working on adoption

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Huge Royalty Potential

Atomera is an IP licensing company that will generate royalties by semiconductor companies adopting its technology into any of the worlds roughly 500 semiconductor nodes in today’s 370 fabs. Atomera has created a patented, quantum engineered material called Mears Silicon Technology™ (MST®) which enhances transistors to deliver significantly better performance in today’s electronics that results in higher performance, lower power, and lower costs for ICs. Once the first companies adopt the technology it is expected that the rest of the industry will follow to stay competitive.

At the Loop Capital 2021 Virtual conference on Friday March 12th, the company released a new investor presentation that can be found on their website. Besides updating the slide showing their first JDA customer, who was announced in early January, has moved into Phase 4 of the adoption of MST technology they also showed an example of the benefit of adopting the technology in terms of being able to shrink the die size to allow a much higher die capacity per wafer. For those not familiar with the significance of Phase 4 being added to the slide it means Atomera has completed installation of their technology into the fab and completed the technology transfer and has been paid the $400k licensing fee. If the JDA customer did not plan to advance to Phase 5 they wouldn’t have paid the tech transfer fee and modified their $30m tool to utilize MST. The JDA customer is in process of proving out the technology so it can be adopted by any of its nodes within the company that includes all its business units and product lines. The significance of a JDA is the initial number of royalty generating nodes can be 3-5 to start with each being worth up to $255m.

10 Additional Customers can move from Phase 3 to Phase 4 at any time

The example shown below in this updated chart shows an example of a fabless company and how they will pay royalties. These piece part royalties will be in the range of 1-3% of the Average Selling Price (ASP) of the part and will be similar to what other Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM) customers like STMicro, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, Qualcomm and Broadcom will pay. The example shows not only the advantage of a die shrink in terms of capacity increases but also demonstrates the business case in terms of royalties to Atomera and additional profits for the adopting fabs.

34% increase in node capacity with MST adoption

As seen in the slide example by adopting MST they can shrink the die by 25% and this increases the chips per wafer from 2235 to 3001. This change increases the chips per wafer by 766 but the actual production capacity increase is 34%. Imagine the impact on the chip industry if everyone could adopt the MST technology and get a 34% increase per wafer in chips? Also by increasing die/wafer there will a huge decrease in the amount of water, power and materials used. ESG is on every companies agenda and this is the only way to improve the 370 legacy fabs that will still be producing chips for the next decade. Also if you don’t adopt the technology your fab is going to be at a huge competitive disadvantage. Fabs making money is the second most important item besides meeting delivery commitments and by adopting MST they can either make more money or lower their prices and take market share.

ESG Benefits from MST in existing fabs

Besides the 34% increase in capacity there is also an example of what adoption means for Atomera in terms of royalties and also added profitability for each adopting fab. Using a standard 2% royalty, that is in the center of the typical 1-3% range, it can be seen that Atomera will make around .09 cents per $4.24 part sold. A large volume fab will typically produce 80k wafers per month although the very large fabs can produce 120k-200k wafers per months. A simple calculation shows that Atomera will earn $255m/year on every node it is adopted on and the fab will generate an additional $3b in profits. These numbers demonstrate such a compelling business case that its not a matter of if the technology will be adopted but how quickly can it be implemented. After some discussion with some industry experts my revised estimate to implement into each node is under a million per node and 9-12 months to go from Phase 4 to production. Originally I thought implementation would be much higher but I am now convinced it is much lower and probably already installed in a number of the phase 3 customers fabs.

Typical IDM customers advantage of adopting MST

While previously I had estimated the potential node royalties for wafer fabs adopting MST technology at roughly $64m/node in royalties now we can see that the example provided for piece part royalties is much higher. With my expectations that a range of 8-12 nodes will be in Phase 4/5 by the end of 2021 I am updating my price targets to include 2023. I still don’t expect significant royalties until 2022 but suspect the stock price will continue to rise as progress like the announcements of JDA #1 going to Phase 5, JDA #2 being announced or even the EPI tool being certified and put into production to drive the share price during 2021.

2021 Price Target. Range $100-$150 based on 8-12 nodes in process of coming online.

2022 Price Target. Range $250-$500 based on first royalties on 4 nodes starting production. Roughly $250m-$500m in royalties or $5b+ market cap,

2023 Price Target. Range $500-$1000 based on 4 IDMs in full production at $255m/node and 4 Fabs in full production at $64m/node for a total $1.25b in royalties in 2023. Market cap projections at $12b+.

All the above numbers are just rough guesses and only include what I believe covers the current 4 licenses that are known today. There are multiple other companies in Phase 3 that should also be expected to move forward in future months. As they advance these numbers will be updated.

IDM Customers will pay highest royalties

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): When the seas get rough focus on the horizon

I would guess almost 99% of all investments I have ever made have had some angst. Very few did not have ups and downs along the way. Even when lucky enough to buy towards the bottom no stock moves straight up. All stocks are affected by the general market sentiment and any news can be blown way out of proportion. Which brings us back to the question I get over and over whether its this stock or others that don’t go straight up. What do you do when your stocks go down? Well the first thing you can do is do a check on your investment. Are the reasons you bought it still intact? Has something changed that changes your outlook on the companies future? Has the world changed that makes them less valuable going forward? If you had infinite amount of money to invest would it be here or somewhere else?

So before we go through those questions let’s review the week of trading in Atomera.

Monday: Someone sold off a large chunk of shares. Maybe as many as 500k. In retrospect I think they heard about the insider selling that was coming and sold out a large position. Obviously no insider because if they had waited for the Phase 4 announcement on Tuesday they would have received at least 25% more.

Tuesday: Announcement that Phase 4 of the Technology Transfer and equipment installation completed early and company would get first payment of $400k in Q1. Besides a second JDA announcement this is about as good as it gets. Installation in a multi-billion fab is a huge accomplishment. Next for the fab is to move to Phase 5 and then Phase 6 production and royalties for Atomera. My guess is this will happen as quick as possible as you don’t keep a huge fab offline any longer than you have to. The fab has invested $60m just to upgrade their fab and tens of millions more just to get to this point. Its a true inflection point for Atomera.

Wednesday: Form 4 notifications that for the first time in the 5 years since the stock options program was initiated the insiders were going to be allowed to sell some shares. While in the olden days insiders selling was seen as an indication that something was wrong with a company that just is not the case here. Perfect example of founder Robert Mears. The man has spent 20 years getting to this point. More than likely the stock he owns is part of his retirement plan. He sold 27K shares. People working for small startups are usually highly tied to how well the company does in terms of how they do financially. They don’t have huge pension plans or large 401ks. They shouldn’t be expected to hold their shares forever. Bottom line they are also large investors in the company and deserve to benefit from the improving stock price. How many investors here would be happy saying I’m investing here and no matter what the stock does hold on to my shares forever? My guess is more than 75% of the people reading this have never held a stock position longer than 2 years and 99% never longer than 5 years.

So back to the original questions. Are the reasons I bought still intact? Yes. The companies progress towards large royalties is ontrack and I believe this is just the first of many announcements that will continue coming their way in 2021. I expect at least two other of the companies that have licenses will be in Phase 5 or 6 in 2021.

Has something changed that changes the outlook for the company? In some ways yes. They company completed early the first installation with their first JDA customer. A JDA customer is unique in that they do not have to go through Phase 4 again with other nodes being upgraded. They will go directly to Phase 5 on future nodes being modified. There is a reason the company keeps talking about multiple nodes and productlines for their JDA customers. I suspect in 2022 just this first JDA customer will have at least 3 nodes producing parts with MST technology inside.

Has the macro world environment changed and made semiconductors a poor investment place? No. In fact while the Total Addrssable Market is roughly $450b this year I suspect that will be well over $600b by 2025. So not only is Atomera a huge disruptor into the semiconductor market the space itself will continue to see huge growth. Bottom line everything in the world depends on semiconductors and that only continues to grow.

Finally one test I always use with investments is if I didn’t own the stock today would I be a buyer at current price? To determine that I look at the risk/reward and what do I think the stock can be worth by year end. With my target of $100 by year end this still looks like a low price and the biggest risk is what the general nasdaq does with high tech going forward. While tech has fallen out of mainstream favor at the moment its always going to be a big part of the future which means sentiment will swing back around.

So what do I tell people who ask me how to handle huge stock swings? Ask yourself if your a 9 minute investor or a 9 month investor. Are you looking at the waves or the horizon? I guarantee looking at the waves makes us all a bit seasick in rough waters.

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): Facts, Figures and 2021 Catalysts as of 6/12/21

Updated 6/12/2021

Craig Hallum Initiates Coverage 6/9 – Moonshot Potential $150

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Short term target $35
  • Atomera (ATOM)
  • 23m shares outstanding
  • $36.7m in cash, 3 years
  • $14m/year burn rate
  • 370 fabs and approx. 500 nodes potential
  • Est. $255m/year royalties per node IDM Piece Part
  • Est. $64m/year royalties per node Wafers
  • 3.47m shares shorted (5/28)
  • 14.87m(65%) held by Institutions/Insiders

Atomera is engaged in the business of developing, commercializing and licensing proprietary materials, processes and technologies for the $450+ billion semiconductor industry that is growing to $750b by 2027. By incorporating MST, transistors can be smaller, with increased speed, reliability and energy efficiency. In legacy nodes, by adopting MST, performance can be increased and die shrunk so capacity can increase over 30% and help solve the current industry shortage issues along with reducing power and water usage that improves the industries carbon footprint. Recent data demonstrated the applicability of MST to leading edge 3nm fabs meaning MST can be adopted across the entire $750b TAM. We believe that MST can be widely incorporated into the most common types of semiconductor products, including analog, logic, optical and memory integrated circuits.

MST can supply a 30% performance improvement with allows a 20% die shrink that leads to a 34% capacity improvement
  • Atomera shares outstanding 23m
  • Insiders 2.53m or 11%
  • Institutions holdings from 13f filings 12.34m or 54%
  • 14.87m(65%) shares held by Institutions and Insiders
  • Float 8m shares before retail estimate
  • Estimate retail holdings 6-7m(guess)
  • Estimated Float less than 2m after retail estimate
  • Shares Short 3.47m(5/28) Record Level
  • Cash $36.7m burn rate $3.5m/qrt approx as of 3/31
  • 276 patents with 26 patents issued in 2020 and 4 so far 2021
  • 86 patents pending
Vast majority of adopters will be high royalty piece parts(IDM)
80 patents pending

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): 61% of shares held by Institutions and Insiders after Q4 filings

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Every quarter I review all the current 13f filings and get an idea of who is buying. Since Q1 the number of 13f filings is up 3x from 23 in Q1 to 75 in Q4. Adding all the 13f filings there are now 10.473m shares accounted for and with insiders holding 3.1m shares approx. 61%(13.70m) of the 22.4m total outstanding shares can be accounted for as of 12/31. I suspect much of the buying in 2021 has been institutions given the increase in volume and price and we will see those filings in another 3 months. With $37.9m in cash and no need to sell shares the number of available shares is shrinking every day.

  • 75(Q4) Institutions/13f filers now own shares up from 23(Q1)
  • Institutions increased to 10.50 up from 10.173k(Q3)
  • 46 Institutions bought/added shares in Q4 and only 25 sold

Atomera is engaged in the business of developing, commercializing and licensing proprietary materials, processes and technologies for the $450+ billion semiconductor industry. We believe that by incorporating MST, transistors can be smaller, with increased speed, reliability and energy efficiency. We believe that MST can be widely incorporated into the most common types of semiconductor products, including analog, logic, optical and memory integrated circuits.

  • Atomera shares outstanding 22.4m
  • Insiders 3.1m or 13.8%
  • Institutions holdings from 13f filings 10.6m or 47%
    • Blackrock Inc. 1.148 million up 148k
    • Valley High Capital 1 million
    • Valley High Limited Capital 1 million
    • Peter Appel 871k down 500k
    • Vanguard 849k up 93k
    • Vulpes Innovative Technologies 743k
    • AWM Investment 578k down 90k
    • Hollencrest 556k up 41k
    • K2 Energy 520k
    • Susquehanna 300k up 214k
    • Geode Capital 271k up 46k
    • Statestreet Capital 245k up 29k
    • Citadel Advisors 240k up 120k
    • Avenir Corp 239k
    • Flagship Harbor 223k New 223k
    • Bard Associates 193k
    • Northern trust 188k
    • Sargent investment 152k up 7k
    • Sculptor Capital 124k up 61k
    • https://whalewisdom.com/stock/atmr
  • 13.70m(61%) shares held by Institutions and Insiders
  • Float 8.8m shares before retail estimate
  • Estimate retail holdings 6-7m(guess)
  • Estimated Float less than 2m after retail estimate
  • Shares Short 2.95m(3/31) Up 30% in last month
  • 10 Day average volume 406k/day
  • Cash $37.9m burn rate $3.5m/qrt approx as of 12/31
  • 269 patents granted and pending with 26 patents issued in 2020 and 3 so far 2021
  • 80 patents pending

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM) year end CC: CEO says 2021 is going to be a breakout year

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Summary. With $37.9m in cash they have never been in better financial shape. The MST technology is installed in one of the world’s largest fabs and the technology transfer will be completed shortly. Multiple additional JDAs and/or manufacturing licenses in the pipeline. When the company CEO says 2021 is going to be a breakout year he is not kidding.

  • CC key takeaways
  • JDA #1 signed in January along with manufacturing license
  • Additional JDAs and/or manufacturing licenses in pipeline
    • JDAs allow additional nodes to move directly from phase 3 to phase 5
  • MSTcad released and getting positive customer feedback
  • $37.9m in cash, $14m 2021 costs (2+ years funding)
  • $400k in JDA fee licensing payments in Q1 or Q2
    • Upon payment indicates tech transfer completed and next step is to move to phase 5(qualification) and then phase 6 (Production royalties)
    • Companies don’t go to phase 5 unless they plan to go into production
  • Patent portfolio up to 269 issued and pending
    • Patents up 46% in last 2 years
  • Epi Tool installation covers both 200/300mm wafers and is in final check out before acceptance
First of many JDAs or manufacturing licenses signed

The importance of a JDA is it allows the JDA customer to go directly from phase 3 to phase 5 on additional nodes skipping the integration phase 4 since it was already done on other node. The companies own engineers have been trained in the technology and are advocates for adoption. The first JDA being signed is clear signal to rest of industry they need to be working with Atomera.

EPI tool in final checkout phase before acceptance

This Epi tool is unique in that it supports both 200mm and 300mm wafers sizes. Atomera engineers have been able to use while in the acceptance phase. Down to final few items before accepted. Between the Epi tool and MSTcad software addition of new pipeline customers will accelerate.

5 Additional Customers have multiple Phase 3 Engagements
Patents issued up 17% last year and 46% over last 2 years
Customer feedback positive

The below are the question and answer portion of the CC.

How can Atomera impact chip shortage: Example of 200mm fab could install MST technology and it would allow them to reduce die by 20-25% and thus give each wafer 20-25% more capacity.

Is the chip shortage stopping fabs from running wafers using MST. No. Fabs are prioritizing wafer runs and MST technology is top priority so they are getting R+D runs still even though fabs are very busy due to shortages.

Please provide update on previous licensees.

All are very secretive and don’t want any information on where they are at getting out. AKM had fire and is recovering but fully committed to going forward. The other 2 are hopefully moving to Phase 4 soon.

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): A true Unicorn in today’s investment forest

Characteristics of a Unicorn

  • Disruptive to industry (adopt or be noncompetitive)
  • No competition
  • Can’t be duplicated i.e. Atomera fenced patent portfolios and implementation know how
  • Hyper Growth Potenial (zero to billions in royalties)
  • Industry recognition (People, papers, patents, Synopsys conference etc..)

The top question you always hear is why isn’t my stock trading higher? In the  case of Atomera the answer is pretty simple. While it is a true Unicorn in the sense there just aren’t any other stocks quite like it, it also isn’t what is striking the fancy of today’s investor. Its not a biotech curing some uncurable disease, its not an Electronic Vehicle company that will be lucky to sell 10k vehicles over the next few years, its certainly not launching into space like dozens of companies all chasing a tiny market or one of the mighty SPACs who nobody really knows what they do but prices keep going up. No, its a company that is going to make lots of royalties for years to come as it gets adopted by the world’s largest semiconductor companies. The good news is there are groups of large investors that look for companies with exactly the combination of disruptive technology, quickly ramping revenues with large earnings potential that Atomera brings to the table. The even better news is these investors, whether we want to call them institutions or investment funds, have arrived. This changing of the guard from retail to institutional ownership will also make it much harder for shorts to manipulate the share price. Long term holders paying into the mid 40s last week will make it even more difficult to find shares to cover the very large short position in the stock.

I don’t usually summarize a week’s trading in great detail but I think we are going to look back at this week’s trading as a changing of the guard in terms of share ownership. For a long time retail has played a significant role in the stocks direction. The volume and price over the last two weeks seem to indicate much larger investors or funds taking over the ownership. Ultimately there are only 22.4m shares outstanding and a much smaller amount in the float. After Wednesdays CC there were a lot of sellers who were looking for a reason to sell and were expecting some major announcement that was unlikely to be part of a year end CC. As can be seen in the weekly chart the stock ended slightly down for the week and the chart looks very similar to when its last big step up. The key piece of information that most investors seemed to overlook is the Phase 4 work that is completing in the very near future. This is the installation and tech transfer of the MST technology in one of the worlds largest semiconductors fabs. From the call it should also be obvious that this fab has multiple nodes. Upon completion, in the very near future, the semiconductor company will then start qualification runs and then head into production. Having done tech transfers many times let me assure you that they are already doing qualification runs as part of the tech transfer. The large semiconductor company will not sign off on the tech transfer unless they are 100% convinced it works. So while they still will run qualification samples prior to starting royalty generating production its a done deal once Phase 4 is completed. This is truly a defining moment in the companies history and marks the next step to industry wide adoption. The second JDA, when announced, is another huge catalyst and will accelerate the rest of the industry to adopt. There are also 9 other customers in Phase 3 that can start Phase 4 at any time.

All weekly indicators are indicating continued upward movement with possible breakout to mid 50’s.

Multiple customers in Phase 3 likely to move quickly to Phase 4

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): Needham Growth Conference on 1/15 Notes

  • Key Takeaways
  • There are 370 fabs and at least 370 nodes worldwide(est. 500)
  • Working with very large Fabs with multiple nodes/lines
  • Fabs adopting MST will make more money and get better performance
  • MST applicable to 5nm, 3nm and next gen fabs
  • Licensing involves know how and patents which leads to long licensing/royalties

Here are some of the highlights I captured listening to the presentation at the Needham conference on 1/15/21. The webcast and presentation can be found on the Atomera website and it is highly recommended to listen to it.

Added a manufacturing license as part of first JDA
3 Unique Patent Portfolios to license for royalties
  • Three Extensive patent portfolio
  • Easy to detect infringement by disecting device
  • Know how to use patents part of manufacturing license and never expire. Long licensing life for portfolios.
Business case
  • There are 370 fabs worldwide and at least 370 nodes(est. 500)
  • VERY large fabs may have multiple nodes
  • Installing MST provides 30% improvement in performance
  • Very large fabs can produce 80k wafers/month one node
  • Atomera makes $66/wafer in royalties, $64m/year
  • Fab makes $214/wafer or an additional $205m
  • Customers agree this is very beneficial to adopt
  • Working with VERY large fabs first that have multiple nodes and product families
Very low cost model
  • Company has grown from 3 customers to 19 customers
  • Yearly costs show very little increases
  • Can expand quickly with minimal increase in costs going forward

The following questions were discussed in the Q+A session

Question 1: How applicable is MST technology to the 5nm and below fabs.

Answer 1: A lot of papers in the industry suggesting it is applicable. When talking with customers they believe it can help solve some of their problems in this area.

Question 2: When will shareholders learn who partners are in JDAs.

Answer 2: They are working with numerous companies on future JDAs and licenses. First question Atomera asks is if they can share their names. The larger the company the less likely they are to allow. Will announce when they get into production. Working with worlds VERY large semiconductor companies.

Question 3: Can you provide an update on the 3 original licensees?

Answer 3: Engaged with all three. Progress continuing. AKM had a fire but is still planning to move forward.

Three original licensees

Question 4: The technology seems to good to be true with improved performance, lower costs, higher yields etc.. If so good why not being used in production?

Answer 4: Getting face to face meetings with fab technical team provides deep dive into technology. By end of meeting customer is suggesting ways where the technology may be of even further benefits. The reason it takes time to adopt is simply the complex nature of the semiconductor process. In a 200 step process MST would be added around step 30 and add more steps. Many variables and takes time to modify fab.

Additional info not part of conference below.

2021 Catalysts

CASH on hand as of early January = $37m. There was $25m(9/30) and they raised another $15m via ATM in January 21. Roughly $40m minus cash used in q4 of $3m.

Cash position $37m

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Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports