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Atomera (ATOM): Facts and Figures as of 3/2/21

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Updated 3/2/2021

With today’s news that Atomera has completed their IP tech transfer and installation into one of the worlds largest multi-billion dollar fabs this signals the start of Phase 5(Qualification runs) followed by royalty generating production parts. In my experience this is a huge milestone for Atomera as this fab upgrade costs the customer $60m/node and they will not sign off on the tech transfer until the equipment is running perfectly. In fact I would expect that the sign off only happened after a full qualification run has been completed. There is no other way to verify it works. A full qualification run would take 2 months which is when the JDA was announced on January 5th. This fits the timetable and was probably the final piece to sign off on the tech transfer. I expect Phase 5 qualification to be 2 to 3 runs covering 6 months putting the fab possibly to be in production in late 2021. Keep in mind the JDA allows other nodes with this customer to skip phase 4 and go right into phase 5.

  • Atomera (ATOM)
  • 22.4m shares outstanding
  • $37.9m in cash, no debt
  • $14m/year burn rate
  • 370 fabs and approx. 500 nodes potential
  • Est. $64m/year royalties per node
  • 13.70m(61%) held by Institutions/Insiders

Atomera is engaged in the business of developing, commercializing and licensing proprietary materials, processes and technologies for the $450+ billion semiconductor industry. We believe that by incorporating MST, transistors can be smaller, with increased speed, reliability and energy efficiency. We believe that MST can be widely incorporated into the most common types of semiconductor products, including analog, logic, optical and memory integrated circuits.

  • Atomera shares outstanding 22.4m
  • Insiders 3.1m or 13.8%
  • Institutions holdings from 13f filings 10.6m or 47%
  • 13.70m(61%) shares held by Institutions and Insiders
  • Float 8.7m shares before retail estimate
  • Estimate retail holdings 6-7m(guess)
  • Estimated Float less than 2m after retail estimate
  • Shares Short 2.2m(1/31), real time 2.8m
  • Cash $37.9m burn rate $3.5m/qrt approx as of 12/31
  • 269 patents with 26 patents issued in 2020 and 1 so far 2021
  • 10 patent applications in 2020 pending issuement

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): 61% of shares held by Institutions and Insiders after Q4 filings

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Every quarter I review all the current 13f filings and get an idea of who is buying. Since Q1 the number of 13f filings is up 3x from 23 in Q1 to 75 in Q4. Adding all the 13f filings there are now 10.473m shares accounted for and with insiders holding 3.1m shares approx. 61%(13.70m) of the 22.4m total outstanding shares can be accounted for as of 12/31. I suspect much of the buying in 2021 has been institutions given the increase in volume and price and we will see those filings in another 3 months. With $37.9m in cash and no need to sell shares the number of available shares is shrinking every day.

  • 75(Q4) Institutions/13f filers now own shares up from 23(Q1)
  • Institutions increased to 10.50 up from 10.173k(Q3)
  • 46 Institutions bought/added shares in Q4 and only 25 sold

Atomera is engaged in the business of developing, commercializing and licensing proprietary materials, processes and technologies for the $450+ billion semiconductor industry. We believe that by incorporating MST, transistors can be smaller, with increased speed, reliability and energy efficiency. We believe that MST can be widely incorporated into the most common types of semiconductor products, including analog, logic, optical and memory integrated circuits.

  • Atomera shares outstanding 22.4m
  • Insiders 3.1m or 13.8%
  • Institutions holdings from 13f filings 10.6m or 47%
    • Blackrock Inc. 1.148 million up 148k
    • Valley High Capital 1 million
    • Valley High Limited Capital 1 million
    • Peter Appel 871k down 500k
    • Vanguard 849k up 93k
    • Vulpes Innovative Technologies 743k
    • AWM Investment 578k down 90k
    • Hollencrest 556k up 41k
    • K2 Energy 520k
    • Susquehanna 300k up 214k
    • Geode Capital 271k up 46k
    • Statestreet Capital 245k up 29k
    • Citadel Advisors 240k up 120k
    • Avenir Corp 239k
    • Flagship Harbor 223k New 223k
    • Bard Associates 193k
    • Northern trust 188k
    • Sargent investment 152k up 7k
    • Sculptor Capital 124k up 61k
    • https://whalewisdom.com/stock/atmr
  • 13.70m(61%) shares held by Institutions and Insiders
  • Float 8.8m shares before retail estimate
  • Estimate retail holdings 6-7m(guess)
  • Estimated Float less than 2m after retail estimate
  • Shares Short 2.1m(2/13
  • 10 Day average volume 825k/day
  • Cash $37.9m burn rate $3.5m/qrt approx as of 12/31
  • 269 patents with 26 patents issued in 2020 and 1 so far 2021
  • 10 patent applications in 2020 pending issuement

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM) year end CC: CEO says 2021 is going to be a breakout year

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Summary. With $37.9m in cash they have never been in better financial shape. The MST technology is installed in one of the world’s largest fabs and the technology transfer will be completed shortly. Multiple additional JDAs and/or manufacturing licenses in the pipeline. When the company CEO says 2021 is going to be a breakout year he is not kidding.

  • CC key takeaways
  • JDA #1 signed in January along with manufacturing license
  • Additional JDAs and/or manufacturing licenses in pipeline
    • JDAs allow additional nodes to move directly from phase 3 to phase 5
  • MSTcad released and getting positive customer feedback
  • $37.9m in cash, $14m 2021 costs (2+ years funding)
  • $400k in JDA fee licensing payments in Q1 or Q2
    • Upon payment indicates tech transfer completed and move to phase 5(qualification) and then phase 6 (Production royalties)
    • Companies don’t go to phase 5 unless they plan to go into production
  • Patent portfolio up to 269 issued and pending
    • Patents up 46% in last 2 years
  • Epi Tool installation covers both 200/300mm wafers and is in final check out before acceptance
First of many JDAs or manufacturing licenses signed

The importance of a JDA is it allows the JDA customer to go directly from phase 3 to phase 5 on additional nodes skipping the integration phase 4 since it was already done on other node. The companies own engineers have been trained in the technology and are advocates for adoption. The first JDA being signed is clear signal to rest of industry they need to be working with Atomera.

EPI tool in final checkout phase before acceptance

This Epi tool is unique in that it supports both 200mm and 300mm wafers sizes. Atomera engineers have been able to use while in the acceptance phase. Down to final few items before accepted. Between the Epi tool and MSTcad software addition of new pipeline customers will accelerate.

Multiple companies with multiple phase 3 engagements
Patents issued up 17% last year and 46% over last 2 years
Customer feedback positive

The below are the question and answer portion of the CC.

How can Atomera impact chip shortage: Example of 200mm fab could install MST technology and it would allow them to reduce die by 20-25% and thus give each wafer 20-25% more capacity.

Is the chip shortage stopping fabs from running wafers using MST. No. Fabs are prioritizing wafer runs and MST technology is top priority so they are getting R+D runs still even though fabs are very busy due to shortages.

Please provide update on previous licensees.

All are very secretive and don’t want any information on where they are at getting out. AKM had fire and is recovering but fully committed to going forward. The other 2 are hopefully moving to Phase 4 soon.

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): A true Unicorn in today’s investment forest

Characteristics of a Unicorn

  • Disruptive to industry (adopt or be noncompetitive)
  • No competition
  • Can’t be duplicated i.e. Atomera fenced patent portfolios and implementation know how
  • Hyper Growth Potenial (zero to billions in royalties)
  • Industry recognition (People, papers, patents, Synopsys conference etc..)

The top question you always hear is why isn’t my stock trading higher? In the  case of Atomera the answer is pretty simple. While it is a true Unicorn in the sense there just aren’t any other stocks quite like it, it also isn’t what is striking the fancy of today’s investor. Its not a biotech curing some uncurable disease, its not an Electronic Vehicle company that will be lucky to sell 10k vehicles over the next few years, its certainly not launching into space like dozens of companies all chasing a tiny market or one of the mighty SPACs who nobody really knows what they do but prices keep going up. No, its a company that is going to make lots of royalties for years to come as it gets adopted by the world’s largest semiconductor companies. The good news is there are groups of large investors that look for companies with exactly the combination of disruptive technology, quickly ramping revenues with large earnings potential that Atomera brings to the table. The even better news is these investors, whether we want to call them institutions or investment funds, have arrived. This changing of the guard from retail to institutional ownership will also make it much harder for shorts to manipulate the share price. Long term holders paying into the mid 40s last week will make it even more difficult to find shares to cover the very large short position in the stock.

I don’t usually summarize a week’s trading in great detail but I think we are going to look back at this week’s trading as a changing of the guard in terms of share ownership. For a long time retail has played a significant role in the stocks direction. The volume and price over the last two weeks seem to indicate much larger investors or funds taking over the ownership. Ultimately there are only 22.4m shares outstanding and a much smaller amount in the float. After Wednesdays CC there were a lot of sellers who were looking for a reason to sell and were expecting some major announcement that was unlikely to be part of a year end CC. As can be seen in the weekly chart the stock ended slightly down for the week and the chart looks very similar to when its last big step up. The key piece of information that most investors seemed to overlook is the Phase 4 work that is completing in the very near future. This is the installation and tech transfer of the MST technology in one of the worlds largest semiconductors fabs. From the call it should also be obvious that this fab has multiple nodes. Upon completion, in the very near future, the semiconductor company will then start qualification runs and then head into production. Having done tech transfers many times let me assure you that they are already doing qualification runs as part of the tech transfer. The large semiconductor company will not sign off on the tech transfer unless they are 100% convinced it works. So while they still will run qualification samples prior to starting royalty generating production its a done deal once Phase 4 is completed. This is truly a defining moment in the companies history and marks the next step to industry wide adoption. The second JDA, when announced, is another huge catalyst and will accelerate the rest of the industry to adopt. There are also 9 other customers in Phase 3 that can start Phase 4 at any time.

All weekly indicators are indicating continued upward movement with possible breakout to mid 50’s.

Multiple customers in Phase 3 likely to move quickly to Phase 4

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): Needham Growth Conference on 1/15 Notes

  • Key Takeaways
  • There are 370 fabs and at least 370 nodes worldwide(est. 500)
  • Working with very large Fabs with multiple nodes/lines
  • Fabs adopting MST will make more money and get better performance
  • MST applicable to 5nm, 3nm and next gen fabs
  • Licensing involves know how and patents which leads to long licensing/royalties

Here are some of the highlights I captured listening to the presentation at the Needham conference on 1/15/21. The webcast and presentation can be found on the Atomera website and it is highly recommended to listen to it.

Added a manufacturing license as part of first JDA
3 Unique Patent Portfolios to license for royalties
  • Three Extensive patent portfolio
  • Easy to detect infringement by disecting device
  • Know how to use patents part of manufacturing license and never expire. Long licensing life for portfolios.
Business case
  • There are 370 fabs worldwide and at least 370 nodes(est. 500)
  • VERY large fabs may have multiple nodes
  • Installing MST provides 30% improvement in performance
  • Very large fabs can produce 80k wafers/month one node
  • Atomera makes $66/wafer in royalties, $64m/year
  • Fab makes $214/wafer or an additional $205m
  • Customers agree this is very beneficial to adopt
  • Working with VERY large fabs first that have multiple nodes and product families
Very low cost model
  • Company has grown from 3 customers to 19 customers
  • Yearly costs show very little increases
  • Can expand quickly with minimal increase in costs going forward

The following questions were discussed in the Q+A session

Question 1: How applicable is MST technology to the 5nm and below fabs.

Answer 1: A lot of papers in the industry suggesting it is applicable. When talking with customers they believe it can help solve some of their problems in this area.

Question 2: When will shareholders learn who partners are in JDAs.

Answer 2: They are working with numerous companies on future JDAs and licenses. First question Atomera asks is if they can share their names. The larger the company the less likely they are to allow. Will announce when they get into production. Working with worlds VERY large semiconductor companies.

Question 3: Can you provide an update on the 3 original licensees?

Answer 3: Engaged with all three. Progress continuing. AKM had a fire but is still planning to move forward.

Three original licensees

Question 4: The technology seems to good to be true with improved performance, lower costs, higher yields etc.. If so good why not being used in production?

Answer 4: Getting face to face meetings with fab technical team provides deep dive into technology. By end of meeting customer is suggesting ways where the technology may be of even further benefits. The reason it takes time to adopt is simply the complex nature of the semiconductor process. In a 200 step process MST would be added around step 30 and add more steps. Many variables and takes time to modify fab.

Additional info not part of conference below.

2021 Catalysts

CASH on hand as of early January = $37m. There was $25m(9/30) and they raised another $15m via ATM in January 21. Roughly $40m minus cash used in q4 of $3m.

Cash position $37m

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Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports

Atomera (ATOM): Royalty potential is highest the industry will ever see

Atomera is a semiconductor licensing company whose earnings will come from royalties. Their technology is being adopted in nodes of the world’s largest fabs. There are 370 fabs worldwide and closer to 500 nodes. The large fabs they are working with first, probably have at least 3 nodes each. The example below is just one large node producing 80k wafers/month(see note below) and will generate $64m/year in royalties for Atomera. Each node will generate $205m in extra profit for the fab meaning it will be a huge financial and technical advantage to adopt. Each of the first two JDAs will hopefully have 3 nodes each and the first license will also be 3 nodes. In the first full year of running the first 9 nodes, of the potential 500, will generate $576m in royalties for Atomera. While exact start of the royalties could be as late as 2022 there is also the possibility the first licensee will go into production in 2021.

Modified Atomera slide showing $64m/year in royalties for 1 node
  • NOTE
  • This example uses 80k wafers/month for estimating purposes but the VERY large nodes are capable of 120k-200k wafers per month.

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Industry Definitions:
Joint Development Agreement (JDA) – major contract between two parties enabling technology to be adopted throughout the organization.  Involves significant capital investment, license fees, and proprietary information sharing. In the case of Atomera a JDA allows the company they are working with to quickly adopt the technology on other nodes. In the first JDA after the Phase 4 tech transfer is complete(Q1) and the company moves the first node to Phase 5(qual) they can start installing on other nodes and go from Phase 3 (which a number of customers are in) directly to Phase 5. That is the benefit of a JDA over just a license. As mentioned in the recent CC the JDA is more a teaming of customer and Atomera engineering that allows the customers engineers to do the tech transfers on other nodes much more quickly since it is done with the companies own experts who are much more familiar with their own companies proprietary nodes.

TCAD Software Modeling and EPI tool will speed future developments.

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera ( ATOM ): Base forming and waiting for next catalyst of next JDA or Phase 4 announcement

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  • Atomera (ATOM)
  • 22.4m shares outstanding
  • $37.9m in cash, no debt
  • $14m/year burn rate
  • 370 fabs and approx. 500 nodes potential
  • Est. $64m/year royalties per node
  • BlackRock now owns 1.148m or 5.4% as of 2/2/21 13G filing
  • Real time Short interest around 2.8m shares

Updated 2/21/21

The weekly chart shows how strong the momentum is in this stock. The stock has moved consistently since the first JDA was announced on January 5th. A base around $35 is forming and expect a strong upward move if a second JDA is announced or Phase 4 is completed with the first JDA. A second JDA would clearly indicate industry wide adoption and puts the stock in play for a potential buyout in 2021. With $37.9m in the bank, no debt and enough cash for 2+ years of operations there will be no reason to raise money. A tiny float, averaging around 700k shares per day and a large short position may spark an accelerated move towards the $55-57 target.

Weekly chart indicates continued uptrend

The daily chart is showing the gap filled up to $41. If the MACD turns positive expect the next leg upward. This past weeks short interest has held steady. The price and volume indicates big money players continue to pour into the stock. Accumulation of the remaining few shares of the available float are being bought by long term holders. Watch the 20dma for support.

Looking for upward turn of MACD
Chart courtesy of irf944 from stocktwits

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock.Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.