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Atomera (ATOM): Facts and Figures as of 3/2/21

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Updated 3/2/2021

With today’s news that Atomera has completed their IP tech transfer and installation into one of the worlds largest multi-billion dollar fabs this signals the start of Phase 5(Qualification runs) followed by royalty generating production parts. In my experience this is a huge milestone for Atomera as this fab upgrade costs the customer $60m/node and they will not sign off on the tech transfer until the equipment is running perfectly. In fact I would expect that the sign off only happened after a full qualification run has been completed. There is no other way to verify it works. A full qualification run would take 2 months which is when the JDA was announced on January 5th. This fits the timetable and was probably the final piece to sign off on the tech transfer. I expect Phase 5 qualification to be 2 to 3 runs covering 6 months putting the fab possibly to be in production in late 2021. Keep in mind the JDA allows other nodes with this customer to skip phase 4 and go right into phase 5.

  • Atomera (ATOM)
  • 22.4m shares outstanding
  • $37.9m in cash, no debt
  • $14m/year burn rate
  • 370 fabs and approx. 500 nodes potential
  • Est. $64m/year royalties per node
  • 13.70m(61%) held by Institutions/Insiders

Atomera is engaged in the business of developing, commercializing and licensing proprietary materials, processes and technologies for the $450+ billion semiconductor industry. We believe that by incorporating MST, transistors can be smaller, with increased speed, reliability and energy efficiency. We believe that MST can be widely incorporated into the most common types of semiconductor products, including analog, logic, optical and memory integrated circuits.

  • Atomera shares outstanding 22.4m
  • Insiders 3.1m or 13.8%
  • Institutions holdings from 13f filings 10.6m or 47%
  • 13.70m(61%) shares held by Institutions and Insiders
  • Float 8.7m shares before retail estimate
  • Estimate retail holdings 6-7m(guess)
  • Estimated Float less than 2m after retail estimate
  • Shares Short 2.2m(1/31), real time 2.8m
  • Cash $37.9m burn rate $3.5m/qrt approx as of 12/31
  • 269 patents with 26 patents issued in 2020 and 1 so far 2021
  • 10 patent applications in 2020 pending issuement

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): 61% of shares held by Institutions and Insiders after Q4 filings

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Every quarter I review all the current 13f filings and get an idea of who is buying. Since Q1 the number of 13f filings is up 3x from 23 in Q1 to 75 in Q4. Adding all the 13f filings there are now 10.473m shares accounted for and with insiders holding 3.1m shares approx. 61%(13.70m) of the 22.4m total outstanding shares can be accounted for as of 12/31. I suspect much of the buying in 2021 has been institutions given the increase in volume and price and we will see those filings in another 3 months. With $37.9m in cash and no need to sell shares the number of available shares is shrinking every day.

  • 75(Q4) Institutions/13f filers now own shares up from 23(Q1)
  • Institutions increased to 10.50 up from 10.173k(Q3)
  • 46 Institutions bought/added shares in Q4 and only 25 sold

Atomera is engaged in the business of developing, commercializing and licensing proprietary materials, processes and technologies for the $450+ billion semiconductor industry. We believe that by incorporating MST, transistors can be smaller, with increased speed, reliability and energy efficiency. We believe that MST can be widely incorporated into the most common types of semiconductor products, including analog, logic, optical and memory integrated circuits.

  • Atomera shares outstanding 22.4m
  • Insiders 3.1m or 13.8%
  • Institutions holdings from 13f filings 10.6m or 47%
    • Blackrock Inc. 1.148 million up 148k
    • Valley High Capital 1 million
    • Valley High Limited Capital 1 million
    • Peter Appel 871k down 500k
    • Vanguard 849k up 93k
    • Vulpes Innovative Technologies 743k
    • AWM Investment 578k down 90k
    • Hollencrest 556k up 41k
    • K2 Energy 520k
    • Susquehanna 300k up 214k
    • Geode Capital 271k up 46k
    • Statestreet Capital 245k up 29k
    • Citadel Advisors 240k up 120k
    • Avenir Corp 239k
    • Flagship Harbor 223k New 223k
    • Bard Associates 193k
    • Northern trust 188k
    • Sargent investment 152k up 7k
    • Sculptor Capital 124k up 61k
    • https://whalewisdom.com/stock/atmr
  • 13.70m(61%) shares held by Institutions and Insiders
  • Float 8.8m shares before retail estimate
  • Estimate retail holdings 6-7m(guess)
  • Estimated Float less than 2m after retail estimate
  • Shares Short 2.1m(2/13
  • 10 Day average volume 825k/day
  • Cash $37.9m burn rate $3.5m/qrt approx as of 12/31
  • 269 patents with 26 patents issued in 2020 and 1 so far 2021
  • 10 patent applications in 2020 pending issuement

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM) year end CC: CEO says 2021 is going to be a breakout year

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Summary. With $37.9m in cash they have never been in better financial shape. The MST technology is installed in one of the world’s largest fabs and the technology transfer will be completed shortly. Multiple additional JDAs and/or manufacturing licenses in the pipeline. When the company CEO says 2021 is going to be a breakout year he is not kidding.

  • CC key takeaways
  • JDA #1 signed in January along with manufacturing license
  • Additional JDAs and/or manufacturing licenses in pipeline
    • JDAs allow additional nodes to move directly from phase 3 to phase 5
  • MSTcad released and getting positive customer feedback
  • $37.9m in cash, $14m 2021 costs (2+ years funding)
  • $400k in JDA fee licensing payments in Q1 or Q2
    • Upon payment indicates tech transfer completed and move to phase 5(qualification) and then phase 6 (Production royalties)
    • Companies don’t go to phase 5 unless they plan to go into production
  • Patent portfolio up to 269 issued and pending
    • Patents up 46% in last 2 years
  • Epi Tool installation covers both 200/300mm wafers and is in final check out before acceptance
First of many JDAs or manufacturing licenses signed

The importance of a JDA is it allows the JDA customer to go directly from phase 3 to phase 5 on additional nodes skipping the integration phase 4 since it was already done on other node. The companies own engineers have been trained in the technology and are advocates for adoption. The first JDA being signed is clear signal to rest of industry they need to be working with Atomera.

EPI tool in final checkout phase before acceptance

This Epi tool is unique in that it supports both 200mm and 300mm wafers sizes. Atomera engineers have been able to use while in the acceptance phase. Down to final few items before accepted. Between the Epi tool and MSTcad software addition of new pipeline customers will accelerate.

Multiple companies with multiple phase 3 engagements
Patents issued up 17% last year and 46% over last 2 years
Customer feedback positive

The below are the question and answer portion of the CC.

How can Atomera impact chip shortage: Example of 200mm fab could install MST technology and it would allow them to reduce die by 20-25% and thus give each wafer 20-25% more capacity.

Is the chip shortage stopping fabs from running wafers using MST. No. Fabs are prioritizing wafer runs and MST technology is top priority so they are getting R+D runs still even though fabs are very busy due to shortages.

Please provide update on previous licensees.

All are very secretive and don’t want any information on where they are at getting out. AKM had fire and is recovering but fully committed to going forward. The other 2 are hopefully moving to Phase 4 soon.

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): A true Unicorn in today’s investment forest

Characteristics of a Unicorn

  • Disruptive to industry (adopt or be noncompetitive)
  • No competition
  • Can’t be duplicated i.e. Atomera fenced patent portfolios and implementation know how
  • Hyper Growth Potenial (zero to billions in royalties)
  • Industry recognition (People, papers, patents, Synopsys conference etc..)

The top question you always hear is why isn’t my stock trading higher? In the  case of Atomera the answer is pretty simple. While it is a true Unicorn in the sense there just aren’t any other stocks quite like it, it also isn’t what is striking the fancy of today’s investor. Its not a biotech curing some uncurable disease, its not an Electronic Vehicle company that will be lucky to sell 10k vehicles over the next few years, its certainly not launching into space like dozens of companies all chasing a tiny market or one of the mighty SPACs who nobody really knows what they do but prices keep going up. No, its a company that is going to make lots of royalties for years to come as it gets adopted by the world’s largest semiconductor companies. The good news is there are groups of large investors that look for companies with exactly the combination of disruptive technology, quickly ramping revenues with large earnings potential that Atomera brings to the table. The even better news is these investors, whether we want to call them institutions or investment funds, have arrived. This changing of the guard from retail to institutional ownership will also make it much harder for shorts to manipulate the share price. Long term holders paying into the mid 40s last week will make it even more difficult to find shares to cover the very large short position in the stock.

I don’t usually summarize a week’s trading in great detail but I think we are going to look back at this week’s trading as a changing of the guard in terms of share ownership. For a long time retail has played a significant role in the stocks direction. The volume and price over the last two weeks seem to indicate much larger investors or funds taking over the ownership. Ultimately there are only 22.4m shares outstanding and a much smaller amount in the float. After Wednesdays CC there were a lot of sellers who were looking for a reason to sell and were expecting some major announcement that was unlikely to be part of a year end CC. As can be seen in the weekly chart the stock ended slightly down for the week and the chart looks very similar to when its last big step up. The key piece of information that most investors seemed to overlook is the Phase 4 work that is completing in the very near future. This is the installation and tech transfer of the MST technology in one of the worlds largest semiconductors fabs. From the call it should also be obvious that this fab has multiple nodes. Upon completion, in the very near future, the semiconductor company will then start qualification runs and then head into production. Having done tech transfers many times let me assure you that they are already doing qualification runs as part of the tech transfer. The large semiconductor company will not sign off on the tech transfer unless they are 100% convinced it works. So while they still will run qualification samples prior to starting royalty generating production its a done deal once Phase 4 is completed. This is truly a defining moment in the companies history and marks the next step to industry wide adoption. The second JDA, when announced, is another huge catalyst and will accelerate the rest of the industry to adopt. There are also 9 other customers in Phase 3 that can start Phase 4 at any time.

All weekly indicators are indicating continued upward movement with possible breakout to mid 50’s.

Multiple customers in Phase 3 likely to move quickly to Phase 4

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM): Needham Growth Conference on 1/15 Notes

  • Key Takeaways
  • There are 370 fabs and at least 370 nodes worldwide(est. 500)
  • Working with very large Fabs with multiple nodes/lines
  • Fabs adopting MST will make more money and get better performance
  • MST applicable to 5nm, 3nm and next gen fabs
  • Licensing involves know how and patents which leads to long licensing/royalties

Here are some of the highlights I captured listening to the presentation at the Needham conference on 1/15/21. The webcast and presentation can be found on the Atomera website and it is highly recommended to listen to it.

Added a manufacturing license as part of first JDA
3 Unique Patent Portfolios to license for royalties
  • Three Extensive patent portfolio
  • Easy to detect infringement by disecting device
  • Know how to use patents part of manufacturing license and never expire. Long licensing life for portfolios.
Business case
  • There are 370 fabs worldwide and at least 370 nodes(est. 500)
  • VERY large fabs may have multiple nodes
  • Installing MST provides 30% improvement in performance
  • Very large fabs can produce 80k wafers/month one node
  • Atomera makes $66/wafer in royalties, $64m/year
  • Fab makes $214/wafer or an additional $205m
  • Customers agree this is very beneficial to adopt
  • Working with VERY large fabs first that have multiple nodes and product families
Very low cost model
  • Company has grown from 3 customers to 19 customers
  • Yearly costs show very little increases
  • Can expand quickly with minimal increase in costs going forward

The following questions were discussed in the Q+A session

Question 1: How applicable is MST technology to the 5nm and below fabs.

Answer 1: A lot of papers in the industry suggesting it is applicable. When talking with customers they believe it can help solve some of their problems in this area.

Question 2: When will shareholders learn who partners are in JDAs.

Answer 2: They are working with numerous companies on future JDAs and licenses. First question Atomera asks is if they can share their names. The larger the company the less likely they are to allow. Will announce when they get into production. Working with worlds VERY large semiconductor companies.

Question 3: Can you provide an update on the 3 original licensees?

Answer 3: Engaged with all three. Progress continuing. AKM had a fire but is still planning to move forward.

Three original licensees

Question 4: The technology seems to good to be true with improved performance, lower costs, higher yields etc.. If so good why not being used in production?

Answer 4: Getting face to face meetings with fab technical team provides deep dive into technology. By end of meeting customer is suggesting ways where the technology may be of even further benefits. The reason it takes time to adopt is simply the complex nature of the semiconductor process. In a 200 step process MST would be added around step 30 and add more steps. Many variables and takes time to modify fab.

Additional info not part of conference below.

2021 Catalysts

CASH on hand as of early January = $37m. There was $25m(9/30) and they raised another $15m via ATM in January 21. Roughly $40m minus cash used in q4 of $3m.

Cash position $37m

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Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports

Atomera (ATOM): Royalty potential is highest the industry will ever see

Atomera is a semiconductor licensing company whose earnings will come from royalties. Their technology is being adopted in nodes of the world’s largest fabs. There are 370 fabs worldwide and closer to 500 nodes. The large fabs they are working with first, probably have at least 3 nodes each. The example below is just one large node producing 80k wafers/month(see note below) and will generate $64m/year in royalties for Atomera. Each node will generate $205m in extra profit for the fab meaning it will be a huge financial and technical advantage to adopt. Each of the first two JDAs will hopefully have 3 nodes each and the first license will also be 3 nodes. In the first full year of running the first 9 nodes, of the potential 500, will generate $576m in royalties for Atomera. While exact start of the royalties could be as late as 2022 there is also the possibility the first licensee will go into production in 2021.

Modified Atomera slide showing $64m/year in royalties for 1 node
  • NOTE
  • This example uses 80k wafers/month for estimating purposes but the VERY large nodes are capable of 120k-200k wafers per month.

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Industry Definitions:
Joint Development Agreement (JDA) – major contract between two parties enabling technology to be adopted throughout the organization.  Involves significant capital investment, license fees, and proprietary information sharing. In the case of Atomera a JDA allows the company they are working with to quickly adopt the technology on other nodes. In the first JDA after the Phase 4 tech transfer is complete(Q1) and the company moves the first node to Phase 5(qual) they can start installing on other nodes and go from Phase 3 (which a number of customers are in) directly to Phase 5. That is the benefit of a JDA over just a license. As mentioned in the recent CC the JDA is more a teaming of customer and Atomera engineering that allows the customers engineers to do the tech transfers on other nodes much more quickly since it is done with the companies own experts who are much more familiar with their own companies proprietary nodes.

TCAD Software Modeling and EPI tool will speed future developments.

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

What value is the Atomera ( ATOM ) IP to companies like Apple, Tesla, Synopsys, Applied Materials and SoftBank

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Edited on 2/13 to add section on what type of company is likely to be interested in acquiring Atomera after the next JDA is announced.

Atomera is an Intellectual Property licensing company that plans to generate royalties based on three unique revenue streams. The companies technology is used in the semiconductor materials space that currently has a Total Addressable Market (TAM) of $450b with a CAGR around 7-10% or growing roughly $35-45b/year. By 2025 the TAM should be well over $600b.

The three unique royalty revenue streams will be from the following: wafer sales, individual piece parts and specific technology patents used in specific applications.

Wafer royalties. Large wafer manufacturers, like some shown below, will pay a 2% per wafer royalty to manufacture wafers with MST technology. These wafers will then be used to manufacture parts that can take advantage of the low resistance super high performance wafers. As soon as one of the large wafer manufacturers start selling these unique wafers the rest must follow quickly in order to stay competitive. Also companies like Qualcomm and Apple will demand multiple sources for these wafers. My guess is at least 7 large fabs will be producing these wafers within the next 2 years as these become standard across the industry.

3 out 4 of top 5 in 2021 possible producing MST parts

Individual piece part royalties. These will be for companies like STMicro, Qualcomm, Apple, TI etc. who are designing parts that will take advantage of the MST properties for lower power, size, voltages etc. Two example calculations will be provided for two of the companies that have licensed MST technology already. For this example Qualcomm was used as the large fabless company but it could be Broadcom, Apple, Google etc…

Licensing of specific patents for unique piece parts. The company has received many patents for specific technologies like memories, image sensors, varactors and waveguides. I suspect these will all be licensed as families and will provide another revenue stream down the road. This is not calculated here and each family could be sold to specific companies given their specific nature.

Valuation of first JDA (large wafer manufacturer)

  • Atomera and Market Leading Semiconductor Company Sign Joint Development Agreement for Use of MST in Future Devices
  • Announced it has entered into a Joint Development Agreement (JDA) with a leading semiconductor provider for integration of Atomera’s Mears Silicon Technology (MST) into their silicon fabrication process. 
  • This latest agreement is part of Atomera’s effort to develop deeper and more strategic relationships with selected customers through JDAs – an agreement format that is well suited to large customers who have multiple production nodes, process technologies and product divisions.
  • https://ir.atomera.com/websites/atomera/English/3110/news-detail.html?airportNewsID=24a8d292-7f66-42ca-a29f-ec0645d0b5d0
Use $58m per node for model
  • Assumptions
  • As stated in PR first JDA is with leading semiconductor company
  • Use mature valuation per node of $58m/year royalties
  • As stated in PR this will be multiple nodes and product lines
  • Use 3 nodes in model
  • Valuation
  • 3 nodes x $58m/node = $174m/year in royalties from first JDA that was just announced

Piece part estimates for STMicro and Qualcomm. These are just a few of the many companies I expect to adopt the MST technology. The royalty will be 1-3% depending on how critical the technology is for the part. For ST will use 2% and for Qualcomm 3% since I believe the new Qualcomm 5G parts will require MST to meet the power requirements of next generation cell phones.

STMicro. Use total chip sales of $9.56b for FY19. Use range of adoption of 10%, 25% and 50% with royalty rate of 2%. Brings royalties of $19m, $48m and $96m. For this example will use $48m/year possible for this license.

Qualcomm. Use chip sales of $5.3b which only covers area of QCT, RFFE and IoT chip sales. Using range of adoption of 10%, 25% and 50% with a 3% royalty rate. Royalties would be $15.9m, $39.6m and $79.2m. For this example will use $39.6m possible for this license.

Current valuation for first JDA and 2 current licenses.

The JDA that was signed would bring in $174m in royalties and the two licenses an additional $87.6m. Roughly $260m/year in the first full year of running. Given their costs of roughly $10m/year the potential earnings would be $250m/year divided by 22m shares. Since the company has $37m in cash there is no further reason to dilute. Earnings potential $11/share based on 1 JDA and 2 out of 3 of current licenses. Using a PE of 20 gives target price of $100-150 by end of year based on what is currently known. Target of $220 in 2022.

Who is most likely to buy Atomera

Many people who look at Atomera ask the question if the technology is so great a large semiconductor company would have bought them years ago. This is the least likely scenario. Just like we are seeing with SoftBank trying to sell ARM to Nvidia none of Nvidia’s competitors who use ARM are excited about licensing from a direct competitor. This is exactly the same problem a large fab would have if they owned the MST technology and another large fab wanted to license. Can you imagine Samsung doing installation on a TSMC node? Not going to happen. But companies like Apple insist that multiple companies be able to produce their parts so they force companies like Qualcomm to develop multiple companies to produce their parts. So while I expect every large fab to adopt MST over the next several years the installations will need to be done by companies that are not direct competitors to the fabs themselves in terms of making semiconductors. The list below is likely a good starting point in who would be interested in acquiring the company and the second JDA will certainly bring interest once it becomes obvious that industry wide roll out is starting.

Who would be interested in owning Atomera and why

Why would companies like Tesla and Apple be interested in an IP company? It wouldn’t primarily be because of the royalty stream but instead be leverage over the large fabs to make sure they get their parts first. The industry is seeing a shortage in fab capacity and major automobile and electronics manufacturers are seeing shortages in electronic part deliveries. Since this is probably not going to change in the future having this leverage over the fabs would insure their parts are delivered on time.

Synopsys, Inc. provides electronic design automation software products used to design and test integrated circuits. With the release of MST Cad, which is a speciality program to allow designers to design parts taking advantage of the unique properties of MST. Given they are one of the industries top simulation companies they have the unique ability to understand the value of the MST technology. They are in perfect position to purchase the IP and license to other semiconductor companies given their long relationships with everyone in the industry.

Applied Materials, Inc. provides manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, display, and related industries. They have been a long time partner and are critical for modifying the semiconductor equipment that is used to make wafers to implement MST. They are in the unique position, working with all the fabs, to take advantage of selling equipment specifically to take advantage of MST. This would give them a proprietary advantage in the space. Any of the semiconductor equipment partners they are working with would also be potential acquirers.

SoftBank Group Corp. is a Japanese multinational conglomerate holding company headquartered in Minato, Tokyo. SoftBank owns stakes in many technology, energy, and financial companies. The are best known in the IP licensing space having purchased ARM holding, a processor company, for $32b in 2016 and is now selling it for $40b to Nvidia. ARM only creates and licenses its technology as intellectual property (IP), rather than manufacturing and selling its own physical CPUs, GPUs, SoCs or microcontrollers. This is the perfect company to buy or invest in Atomera. While they could just purchase they may decide to take an equity stake in the company and then help speed up adoption by providing resources and contacts within the space. I would guess they could speed adoption to 50% penetration by several years.

Large fabless companies Qualcomm and Broadcom will also be possible acquirers. While not considered in the original analysis since I did not think an individual semiconductor company can own this technology since it needs to be adopted across the industry it is possible that a fabless semiconductor company could. Since these fabless companies would not be competing with other fabs they could license the MST technology without directly competing with the fabs. In fact the fabless semiconductor companies are in the unique position of needing multiple fabs to adopt as soon as possible and this would help get fab priority for parts and also control their costs by earning royalties.

Where do I think Atomera is headed

Ultimately, as investors, what we really want to know is where is the company headed? With the first signed JDA there is no longer any doubt the company is moving forward and also little doubts about future JDAs. With this info it is going to be much easier for a potential acquirer to figure out what this is going to be worth. The majority of royalties will fall right to the bottom line as there is little overhead in counting wafers and cashing big checks. So if in a few years down the road, cash flow will be over several billion a year, the question is what can you get away with paying right now for this future payoff. My guess is between $2-3b or 100+/share. Another key piece is could an acquiring company, that is much larger, ramp this technology faster. Absolutely. 20 current employees become 200 and huge seminars every month draws in the remaining half of the semiconductor industry they have not had the bandwidth to work with. Thats one possible scenario and a company like SoftBank has entire departments that do nothing more than model these type of deals to decide who to purchase and at what price.

All Tool Suppliers potential acquirers
3 Unique Patent Portfolios to license

Special thanks to @Benph from stocktwits on royalty calculations.

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera (ATOM ): The BASF of the semiconductor industry has a strong grass roots following

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BASF was  not known for specific products but instead was known for making other products better.  Atomera does not make semiconductors but offers a product that can make semiconductors better. By better this could mean 25% lower power, lower cost, higher yields and 15-20% smaller die sizes. While institutions have continued to add shares every quarter there is a number of independent research groups that have been recommending the company over the last year(some longer). Many of these groups have provided independent research and have come up with the same conclusion that the stock could easily go up over 10x in 2021. The below groups in December have very recently mentioned Atomera in their research and expect a huge 2021. Keep in mind many of these groups are subscriber based and you won’t get subscribers if your recommendations don’t perform. Also, unlike analysts, these people are investors and own the stocks they recommend.

Less a disruptor and more an enabler(added 1/23/21). Atomera has been talked about as disrupting the $450b semiconductor space with its advanced materials and know how. But the reality is its more an enabler. Disruptors tend to be companies coming into a market and competing with established companies and taking market share. Other companies either adapt or die. In Atomera’s case they are not trying to take market share but instead are enabling companies to continue to grow. As Moores Law continues to evolve the plain fact is without lower power, higher density and smaller footprint parts the current technology growth will come to a grinding halt. What do I mean by this? Take the average cell phone. Over the last 5 years it really hasn’t changed size or shape much but what goes on inside has advanced 5 fold. The cameras, sensors, memory, 3G,4G,5G, etc… capabilities have continued to go up and yet the size and power requirements have held fairly steady. That is where Atomera is going to turn into an enabler. While moving down a node can get you the same type of performance improvements the cost of the phone would go up 5x if that is the only way to get there. Atomera’s MST technology can allow the new DRAM(DDR5) parts to be built on a 10nm node at the same cost as today’s DDR4 parts but with lower power, higher speed and higher density. Thats the game changer the industry needs if technology is going to continue to improve and that is just one example of tens of thousands of parts that will ultimately be able to take advantage of the MST technology as it is adopted industry wide.

  • Luosheng Peng
  • 24k Twitter Followers
  • On 2/14 listed his top three picks for 21
  • ATOM
  • RESN
  • NNOX
  • Beth Kindig on 1/15/21(see last summers note at bottom)
  • This week, my premium members got an update on a company I’ve been tracking for nearly a year. I called the stock a Hail Mary play and I’d say the ball is on the one-yard line now. 
  • https://beth.technology/sign-up-for-beths-newsletter/
  • Lou Basenese – Disruptive Tech Research
  • https://disruptivetr.com/author/disruptivetr/
  • Atomera’s First JDA Justifies Immediate & Major Revaluation
  • I’ll share all the reasons why I believe so, plus the most likely identity of the “market leading semiconductor company” partner and why this single joint development immediately justifies a minimum valuation of $49.92.
  • You must subscribe to read the rest of his research on Atomera. His top pick for 2021.

TW’s Take: this is the first of what I believe will be many JDAs. The snowball has started down the ski hill. 

When I mention not wanting to chase stocks, Atomera (ATOM) comes to mind. The stock is hitting new highs every week it seems and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. We hosted a Zoom call with management last week and came away feeling more excited than ever about the prospects.

If Atomera can deliver “a full node of performance benefits” the technology will not only get adopted by someone, it will need to be adopted by most everyone in order to keep up with peers in what is a highly competitive industry. Meanwhile, I believe MSTcad is going to accelerate adoption. 2021 is shaping up as a potentially great year for shareholders of ATOM.

TW_Research on 1/2/21
Monster Stock Picks
  • Marin Katusa – Katusa Research
  • Twitter 26.5K followers
  • Publisher’s note: Today, we’re turning things over to our friend Chris Wood from investment research firm RiskHedge. Chris is a 20-year market veteran, and he’s one of the country’s most respected tech analysts.

Beth Kindig buy recommendation. Here is what she said last summer. Obviously waiting for the stock to be derisked with announcement of JDA.

  • Ian McMillian
  • 42k Twitter Followers

Andrew Rickli (@AndrewRickli) tweeted at 10:09 PM on Fri, Jan 01, 2021:
Key to growth stocks is to grab them before Wall Street discovers them. $IMMR, $ATOM, $VXRT, $OPEN are all in that category. Look at $NIO back in April at $3/share, now at $50. Wall Street didn’t know!
(https://twitter.com/AndrewRickli/status/1345220620854898688?s=03)

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. I have never been compensated and will never be compensated for any reports.

Atomera ( ATOM ): Base forming and waiting for next catalyst of next JDA or Phase 4 announcement

Twitter @microcapreturns

  • Atomera (ATOM)
  • 22.4m shares outstanding
  • $37.9m in cash, no debt
  • $14m/year burn rate
  • 370 fabs and approx. 500 nodes potential
  • Est. $64m/year royalties per node
  • BlackRock now owns 1.148m or 5.4% as of 2/2/21 13G filing
  • Real time Short interest around 2.8m shares

Updated 2/21/21

The weekly chart shows how strong the momentum is in this stock. The stock has moved consistently since the first JDA was announced on January 5th. A base around $35 is forming and expect a strong upward move if a second JDA is announced or Phase 4 is completed with the first JDA. A second JDA would clearly indicate industry wide adoption and puts the stock in play for a potential buyout in 2021. With $37.9m in the bank, no debt and enough cash for 2+ years of operations there will be no reason to raise money. A tiny float, averaging around 700k shares per day and a large short position may spark an accelerated move towards the $55-57 target.

Weekly chart indicates continued uptrend

The daily chart is showing the gap filled up to $41. If the MACD turns positive expect the next leg upward. This past weeks short interest has held steady. The price and volume indicates big money players continue to pour into the stock. Accumulation of the remaining few shares of the available float are being bought by long term holders. Watch the 20dma for support.

Looking for upward turn of MACD
Chart courtesy of irf944 from stocktwits

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock.Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.

Atomera ( ATOM ): Notes from 12/21 investor call with CEO Scott Bibaud

Twitter @microcapreturns

Dan Carlson from TW Research Group hosted a call with Atomera’s CEO Scott Bibaud on Monday December 21st and it was open to investors interested in the company. These are the notes I took from the call. There were many investors on the call and any other details left out please send to me and I will update. I had my own list of 4 questions that were discussed.

Question 1. Why doesn’t the company put out more releases around items such as the 24 new patents issued so far in 2020, the EPI tool status and events like the Synopsys TCAD webinar.

Answers to question 1.

The company recognizes the value of releasing info and is trying to find a better way on their website to show their patent portfolio. They do not want to flood the news space with every new patent since they have been receiving multiple ones every month.

The EPI tool is installed and being used by engineering. The installer is still working final issues before company will consider it certified and start paying lease. Fortunately those issues do not stop company from using and when certified the company will PR.

The Synopsys seminar in November was a huge deal for the company as Synopsys highlighted MSTCad and the benefits. Unfortunately it was a Synopsys sponsored event so they had no control over what was going to be discussed or ability to invite people.

Question 2. Can you give us an example of piece part royalties.

Answer to question 2.

Target is 1-3% royalty per part. As an example a TI DSP might cost $4 and command a 2% royalty or 8 cents/part sold. A DRAM coming out of a megafactory producing 10s of millions of parts a month might only have a 1% royalty.

Question 3. Other areas of use outside semiconductor space.

Answer to question 3.

While there are other areas the technology could be used they feel they already have a huge market space they are addressing and are very far down the road. Any new area will require investment and time and right now they believe the areas they are addressing will keep them very busy.

Quetion 4. Do they have any large capital expenditures in 2021 that would require raising more capital.

Answer to question 4.

Looking at Capex spending in 2021 they see no major purchases.

Miscellaneous Information Covered.

When asked how fabless companies like Apple or Google might impact adoption of MST technology here is what was discussed.

Fabless companies that bring large volumes of product can drive the adoption of MST in their fab houses. If a company like Apple designs parts using Atomera tools that utilize MST technology they can make their fab house, TSMC adopt it, otherwise they will take their business elsewhere.

Scott mentioned he considered a company like Universal Display ( OLED ) a very good comparison as they have taken a while to get adopted and own significant IP in the display space. I have discussed it further in the below article.

https://atomerastockreport.wordpress.com/2020/12/20/atomera-atom-is-it-the-next-qualcomm-qcom-arm-or-target-for-softbank/

There was a question about who the JDAs were with. At first he mentioned they were with the biggest fabs but then corrected himself and said they were also working JDAs with fabless companies. My impression is there are a lot of deals being worked with both the largest fabs in the world and also large fabless customers.

I have added this section on 1/2/21 in response the questions on the stocktwits Atomera board. These are my own opinions and not part of above call.

Question 1. Any details on how much time tentatively it takes from a Signed JDA to start booking Royalty in revenue?

Answer 1.Not sure I care. If they sign a JDA with a major household name fab that is going to spread the technology across multiple nodes and generate 100s of millions in royalties every year whether that happens in 6 months or a year the stock is worth a large multiple of current price. Also I expect one of the licenses, lets say STMicro, to start generating royalties in the near future.

Question 2. Once Royalty generation starts, is there a number on min and max how many years the royalty would continue?

Once technology adopted minimum of 7 years of usage as the technology will be adopted in new DRAM or SRAM parts and those have a long life cycle. See example below.

Each new standard change is taking longer to happen. DDR5 2021.

Question 3. Is there a formula/logic/consideration that may make royalty %age to go Down or Up in future?

Once adopted in one fab all the fabs will need to adopt technology or they won’t be competitive. If you look at the current speciality wafer on the market MST wafers should replace those since they cost the same but have better performance. A true win-win for the fab. It also seems like their technology may become more standard when you look at where the industry needs to go to make these newer 5nm and 3nm fabs work.

Note MST wafer costs same as current industry standard high performance wafer but performs 2x. Fab makes more money since it can charge more.

Question 4. Do you potentially see some negative scenarios? What may stop JDAs actually not getting signed? Is there a chance any other in-house research/technology might be better alternative for big players in near future? Just trying to find holes in the story ( if any?)

There is always a chance a deal does not get signed that is why the first one is key. Once it is signed other fabs either get on-board or get left behind. When your major customer, like an Apple, will head elsewhere to fab their parts you get on-board. I think the major stumbling point is who owns changes to the technology after installation into the fab. I have seen this type of issue slow down deals time and again. There is no doubt a large fab house will tweak the process over time and they will want to own those changes. It will get resolved. The fact the fabs are probably already looking at improvements tells me they are probably much further along in terms of installation than we have been told. The other part people have to remember these are potentially billions in royalties over time. If they were small deals they would have been done already. On alternative technology the alternative is to go down a node to get same performance. The good news is MST is even more important for these smaller nodes and the royalty stream is much higher because wafers are much more expensive and Atomera gets a 1-3% royalty per wafer.
Whats the biggest risk? You have a tiny company, Atomera, negotiating with a mega company and thats very unusual. Just trying to deal with a mega company is hard as they have departments that are 10x the size of Atomera. My feel is the first deal is very close and future deals will now have a clear path how to resolve key issues. Plus next deals know the technology has been validated by a third party, besides themselves, and they can’t be left behind because you can bet the first agreement company will be out selling the benefits of the new technology to everyone in the industry.

Additional questions after JDA announced. 1/6/21. This are my opinions.

Question 6. What are your expectations of this JDA?

Answer 6. The key points to this JDA are the following statements from release.

“Atomera is thrilled to join with an industry leader that has a strong record of technology innovation to extend Moore’s Law,” said Scott Bibaud, president and CEO, Atomera. 

This latest agreement is part of Atomera’s effort to develop deeper and more strategic relationships with selected customers through JDAs – an agreement format that is well suited to large customers who have multiple production nodes, process technologies and product divisions, ultimately leading to deeper customer penetration, faster integration, and quicker adoption across product lines. 

My take. Industry leader is one of the top 5 wafer manufacturers in the world. They have repeatedly stated they are working with the biggest manufacturers first. Since they mention the JDA having the unique properties of allowing multiple production nodes and product lines the chance of multiple nodes seems very likely. My guess is 4 nodes and each node is capable of generating $50m/year in royalties. I believe my previous estimate of $200m/year in royalties is spot on. I believe the company is on the below list.

Soon 2 of these on the list will have signed JDAs. The third JDA is also likely on this list.

Question 7. When would you expect the next JDA?

Answer 7. My expectations is the second JDA comes within the next month. My reasoning is if the company wasn’t getting a second one signed they would have done a Conference Call to discuss the significance. This is the biggest moment in the companies history and they will want to discuss it. Big moment. But if you have a second one coming my guess is you wait and do one big CC. Other important points. Why will future JDAs go quicker. Simple answer there is now a signed boilerplate to use. Issues that might have been holding up signing have been resolved for the first JDA and can be used for all future JDAs.

On a recent call when asked about JDAs it has come up there is also in process a JDA with a fabless company. It was mentioned that a large fabless company like Apple, can drive their major fab TSMC, to adopt MST. So both the large fabless company and their fab might be JDA 3 and 4.

Question 8. What is with the ATM funding being finished that started in September?

Answer 8. The original ATM for $25m was started in September and raised the first $15m by the beginning of October. This final sale was roughly another 500k shares that raised another $10m. This completes the ATM. Still only 22m shares outstanding.

Question 9. Why did the company decide to finish the ATM at this point.

Answer 9. The company should now have roughly $37m in cash and by finishing off the ATM this allows the company managing the ATM, Craig Hallum, to initiate coverage. Atomera participated in the Alpha conference for Craig Hallum a few months back. There is also the chance they needed the additional money as part of signing the next JDA. Sometimes companies have to put up a bond as part of these agreements. With multiple JDAs possible having plenty of cash allows you to have a solid negotiating position.

Any due diligence from this site is for entertainment only and not a solicitation to buy or sell Atomera stock. Any estimates are just examples of what is possible and should not be considered financial advise. I have not been compensated in any way and will never be compensated for my reports.